when the real crisis starts

an entirely written in the morning blogpost (excepting the following quote he wrote down in his diary last night).

'a piece of writing is a whole that proceeds as a whole - it never presents itself as a matter of choice...' 

- marguerite duras, practicalities. 

forever war (the stupidest war ever)

horsemouth has said he thinks the current gulf war is the stupidest war ever. unlike the war of jenkins ear it is not the pretext for this war that is stupid, it is the complete failure to think through the consequences.

horsemouth fails to see whose strategic interests it serves and for this reason he thinks it is the stupidest war ever. 

the israelis have lunched their reliable ally status with the US. the US has lunched its reliable ally and hegemon status with the rest of the world by precipitating an oil (diesel) crisis without any clear way out. it is a forever war in which the enemy cannot be dislodged from their fortress and that fortress controls a vital strategic asset. 

the full effects of the crisis have not appeared yet because the world is running on its reserves of diesel. when the reserves are gone the real crisis starts. 

when the real crisis starts

production and distribution can happen because of energy - you need energy to get the workers to work and to  run the factories, and diesel (in particular) to transport the finished goods to market.  a major part of any saleable item in a globalised economy is the transport costs, if these rise (as they will) this will drive up inflation and thus interest rates and thus reduce investment into the economy and drive up unemployment as demand falls.

(horsemouth should really talk to his brother's eldest about this - it's his area of expertise). 

as usual the rich are well placed to ride this out (and indeed will make more money out of the crisis to the extent that they are invested in oil) but the poor of all countries will take the beating. 

the suffering will be pretty much incalculable. 

now the US as a country (as the world's reserve currency and net energy exporter) is well placed to ride this out, the other countries of the world that are not oil or gas producers will take a beating. 

it could be argued that this is a blow against china (and, as a by-blow, other far east economies) in the sense that this is where the oil from the strait of hormuz goes - but no, china has far greater oil reserves than the US and is better placed to ride it out. 

arguably russia is one of the few countries to do better out of the crisis - it gets an export market for its oil and gas. (the people of russia do not benefit from this, the oil and gas they would have used gets exported)

but (similar to covid, the 2008 financial crisis, the ukraine war gas price shock) things that harm the global economy can have side effects in terms of weaning states and populations off oil and driving the electrification of the economy. of course the economic effects of the crisis will limit the ability of the governments, companies, people,  to electrify their energy supply or require greater effort to do so. 

there is the further benefit that the production and consumption that does not happen does not generate the CO2 it would have generated which is then not dumped in the atmosphere, does not contribute to global warming etc. 

further, while gas supplies from the US will drive the EU towards them the knowledge that it was the US that kicked off this crisis will drive the EU (and the rest of the world) away and towards greater independence from the US.

of course horsemouth may just be overthinking it. the direct benefactors are the oil companies (who can now charge a much higher price for their product) and the states that produce oil and gas (and who can get their oil and gas to market). 

we may just have witnesses the beginning of the fall of the US as world hegemon. this does not mean that china will simply and directly replace it or that the world will become multipolar (a bloodbath of competing powers). 

-----------------------------

ok having opened up this issue horsemouth will return to it soon. 

the apocalyptic warning of m. segalot

so this is an entirely written in the morning blogpost benefitting in full from horsemouth's wit and perspicacity...

it should be very short then (is all horsemouth can say).

well he's had the first cup of coffee and is progressing rapidly through the second. 

yesterday he read a little in the french to perform some dialogues for far future village band. he focused in on the madison scene from jean-luc goddard's bande à part. in particular he focused in on the apocalyptic warning of m. segalot.

'oh my poor friend. empires are falling. republics likewise...' 

'bravo m. segalot. ca c'est du meuble.' 

in keeping with the maritime theme of recent far future village band songs (though quite how this can be made to fit into the story horsemouth is unsure) he attempted most of the first verse of paul valéry's  le cimetière marin (the cemetery by the sea but it might as well be the cemetery in the sea). 

he also attempted a few lines from jacques attali's bruits (noise) on the round dance (viewed as annunciatory of the new political economy of music). 

he's hoping the bande à part will fit into an already recorded bar scene with accordions. he's hoping the attali and the valéry will insipire more music.  

he found a book of french proverbs from before the 15th century (formerly the property of birkbeck library) and cassell's colloquial french (a handbook of idiomatic usage). 

rob has proposed taking a crack at le bateau ivre (the drunken boat) but it's very long and complicated. the pogues robbed a verse from it (drunken boat for the 1993 album waiting for herb) but in a bit of a cack handed fashion in horsemouth's opinion. léo ferré set the poem into music also using  two first quatrains as a chorus (this might be more possible - nice ouai on it too). 

there's a strong rhyme scheme (an alexandrine) and it all seems fairly regular. (horsemouth thinks you might get it over the junction signal). 

an entirely written in the morning blogpost (except for this line)

the commons water society

so last night horsemouth went to a meeting of the commons water society (and very good it was too).

things progress on keenly. the water supply is getting out from under its section 18 order but it will cost money to do this (which has to be raised). fortunately the sums to do it are not huge (at least in this incarnation) and the members are (mostly) reasonably well heeled. horsemouth thinks it should be possible to prevent a tragedy of the commons. 

the members of the committee are very smart and competent bringing plenty of skills to the table. 

horsemouth can't help but compare this situation with the communal endeavour. he should send them an email to see how it is going. 

at the end horsemouth got a lift back (having taken a torch and prepared himself for a walk back across the common). 

so this is an entirely written in the morning blogpost (except for this line).

horsemouth is up and has been out to feed the chickens in the dark. his body is waking him up at 6.30 for some reason and by then it is still dark (and will be increasingly so). 

horsemouth and his mum an nibbling at the heating and will soon have to move on to lighting the fire in the evening. in a way this would be horsemouth's preferred option for heating the house - it saves on expensive fuel oil, they have a shed full of wood and it looks good. the fly in the ointment is the time when his mum is cooking (and then when they are both doing the washing up) before his mum sits down to watch tv or read is quite long. this means the time for his mum to sit near the fire is comparatively short. 

in which it will all sort itself out

horsemouth is waiting for the arrival of the far future village band III radioactive reptile bootleg CD to come. he's got his eyes out for the postie. 

soon there will be the far future village band IV CD and download. this last he imagines it will come with a booklet and he can get some copies of it made and get into distributing them round. 

rob has proposed taking a crack at le bateau ivre (horsemouth thinks this is a bit ambitious). 

horsemouth 'an angry prophet denouncing the hypocrisies of our times'

 'a book which goes backwards and forwards, advances and retreats,,,' 

- abram tertz (andrei sinyavsky - birthday today), a voice from the chorus. 

excepting the above a wholly written in the morning blogpost.

ok and excepting this...

horsemouth has been trying out a robbie basho guitar tuning (an open Gm/D - dgbflatgbflatd) and most trance inducing it is too. 

-------------------------------------

the night before horsemouth watched network (1976). practically every line made him chortle. 

this morning he was haunted by the junction signal by blyth power. he also had a dream where he was trying to buy two vegetable samosas but the correct money would not be found in his pockets and there was a big queue waiting behind him. junction signal belongs to a very specific part of horsemouth's life (as does the zimbabwean tune take cover that was bothering him also). 

he awoke early and went and fed the chickens in the dark. he turned on the heating. 

himself and rob are coming to the end of their campaign on far future village band IV, they have enough songs for the album, and, with the addition of the accordion they are all sounding great. horsemouth would probably nip and tuck a few of his 'performances' (left to himself) but rob is more an 'honour your mistakes as your secret intention' man. 

this evening the commons water society meeting. 

psychic abilities (birth of liquid plejades)

today is judee sill's birthday. today grey all day (it looks like). 

'judee developed her psychic abilities at this time and became a gifted reader of tarot cards...'

--------------

excepting the above an entirely written in the morning blogpost

during horsemouth's chat with mike the concept of a boo-leader became important (not a cheer-leader but a boo-leader). here we were, endlessly pointing out the ways in which society was bad. 'you. yes you. boo. you suck...' and so on. 

coming up abram tertz (andrei sinyavsky)'s birthday. horsemouth has started collecting quotes and re-reading a voice from the chorus.

how paranoid is horsemouth? 

when the platform pacer (on his recent journey to cheltenham) said he used to work in cheltenham horsemouth only really knew GCHQ as an employer in cheltenham, he therefore assumed he was dealing with some signals intelligence spy type (probably hacking his laptop while he was using it on the train). by way of comparison the old dude on the bus, the young engineer in abergavenny, horsemouth does not suspect of perfidy. 

hmmm

something has complicated his mood

maybe this is the right thing for it (he listened to it last night)

tangerine dream's birth of liquid plejades

edgar froese – christopher franke – peter baumann

with additional musicians

florian fricke of popol vuh– moog synthesizer

steve schroyder (earlier member) – organ outro

the cello intro played by

christian vallbracht

joachim von grumbkow; credited as jochen von grumbcow; co-founder of hoelderlin

hans joachim brüne

johannes lücke

---------------

ok just heard the version of trois matelots (3 sailors dance) with accordion (it sounds rocking!). 

an adventure to cheltenham (during which he has many conversations)

an entirely written in the morning blogpost. 

horsemouth has been off on an adventure to cheltenham. 

permit him tell you about it in excruciating detail. 

the journey there

'ok just up (6am). coffee. bus out at 7. 

still dark out. first traces of dawn on the horizon. beautiful stars and moon (orion particularly fine). sunrise at 07.18...' 

by sunrise horsemouth was already on the bus - chatting with the driver about guitars. at pontrilas there were loads of youngsters off to college (many of whom ended up standing). there was a seat at the back end of the bus with an oldster (87) from pontypool who made use of his OAP bus pass to travel round wales. earlier in his life he'd been a prolific world traveler - borneo, fiji, australia, the states, canada, every european country excepting kosovo and moldova etc. 

like horsemouth he had never learnt to drive. 

hereford railway station in surprisingly good time (given the usual gridlock at belmont) - no hitches this time in buying the tickets. sad to say the 0826 to worcester was suffering a 20 minute delay so horsemouth took the train to newport (passing by pontrilas) changing at newport onto the edinburgh train (strange to say). 

at newport he got chatting to another platform pacer like himself. he'd worked in cheltenham and was going up for a visit. at cheltenham railway station horsemouth was planning to walk the mile and a half to the bar selected for the meet but wanted to get his bearings first (to avoid diving off in completely the wrong direction). the platform pacer offered to direct him to a bus but fortunately horsemouth had drawn himself a little map and was soon headed in the right direction. somewhere on st. george's street he lost confidence in his direction and asked for reassurance from a man doing the strimming and the woman who emerged from the office (and who had a smart phone). 

he missed the sign for the somewhat narrow imperial avenue but (by means of being parallel to it) arrived at rodney road just up there he found tailors the bar where he had agreed to meet mike. 

the last day of summer

mike waited outside the bar in a fisherman's shirt (vented at the back/ large pockets). there mike had a glass of wine while horsemouth had an IPAish thing. the house with the bar in it had previously been the residence of the victorian civil engineer sir benjamin baker (forth bridge, aswan dam, early london underground). 

they then went back to visit mike's hotel room (pausing only to get some quick photos of mike in by a hare and minotaur statue - sophie rider 1995 on the promenade). 

this they followed up with a glass of wine on the terrace outside (playing some jazz) before moving on in search of food. 

it was a bright sunny day. the last day of summer (remarked horsemouth). 

somewhere along the way they passed by the former residence of nevil maskelyne the magician.

they had an IPA each and then a lager (as part of the meal deal). horsemouth had grilled halloumi with fries, mike a croque monsieur before high-tailing it back to the hotel to pick up horsemouth's bag and head back to the rail station.

sadly the newly redecorated pub directly by the railway station was shut so they couldn't get in a sneaky pint pre-travel. 

the return

thence (a delay on the train up to worcester) horsemouth returned via newport trying to work out if this was the smart move. at newport he got on the train to chester (via hereford and abergavenny). if he'd carried on to hereford he would have had to wait on hour for the bus and then walked back across ewyas harold common in darkness as it was he got into abergavenny early enough to give himself enough time to walk to the bus station.

a youngster kindly offered to walk him down there. the youngster was studying to be an engineer and was most interested in offshore wind generation. they discussed the sheer scale of the build out of the national grid that would be required. horsemouth wished him luck with his studies. 

the bus out of  abergavenny was £5 this was considerably more expensive than the £3 bus to and from hereford (and, needless to say, strangely not in line with andy burnham's mythical £2 bus fare). nonetheless it got horsemouth into pontrilas early enough to do the 2 mile walk over the common in daylight. 

and home. 

ok just up (6am). coffee. bus out at 7.

it is the afternoon of the day before 

a radio show on housing

once again the government has promised (once again the government has not delivered).

oh well fail again. fail er. again... (get re-elected. £82k a year ker-ching!)

horsemouth has delivered the eggs, had a small bottle of beer, locked up the abbey and fed the chickens. please remind him to feed them and let them out tomorrow morning (done). 

he's done with the abbey rota (for the next while). he is free. 

-------------------------------------------

ok just up (6am). coffee. bus out at 7.

still dark out. first traces of dawn on the horizon. beautiful stars and moon (orion particularly fine). sunrise at 07.18.

trying to work out which books to take.

horsemouth is anxious about his journey.

he worries about waking up and getting out of the door early enough. 

he worries that his card is going to klux up again at a crucial point.

he worries that there's going to be some kind of rail stoppage that gets him into _____ late.

he worries that he fails to catch up with mike.

he worries that he misses the train back/ bus out of hereford.

he worries that he slips and falls over in the mud on the common knocking himself out etc. 

-----------------------------------------------

ok nice chat on the bus to an 87 year old from pontypool/ cwmbran. he was off to do the triangle (abergavenny - hereford - brecon - abergavenny and back). 

train via worcester delayed - so horsemouth is coming to you via newport now. gets in at 10.57 allegedly - horsemouth will message his meetee from the newport train. so they're on to meet at 11.30. now to check whether he has made the right decision. just going past pontrilas now. 

looks like a reasonable decision. plenty of trains from newport.