but...
grexit is the most likely outcome, greece will become the poster child for what happens if you try and leave europe, anybody thinking of following them will be persuaded otherwise by what we're about to see - just as the media have been (relatively) silent on greek suffering under austerity they will all of a sudden discover it anew as greece crashes out. horsemouth doesn't wish to state this so baldly for his greek friends but there it is. the critique of europe by tony benn in the 74? referendum is essentially correct - it's a bosses europe - the critique of the effects of the single currency on the margins (as enunciated by rightwing critics of it and little britain-ers) is essentally correct too.
(remember 'black monday' and where soros made his money).
'for the first time in eurozone history, people power has happened' says paul mason, to which horsemouth (the cynic) replies 'and that's why they've got to go...'there's no unitary 'they' though - it's not entirely the same as here, where austerity has fucked the poor and the rich have made up their losses (at the expense of the poor) and this will continue - there the rich and middle will feel some pain from this. horsemouth doesn't think the greek left can hang on until there is a europe-wide movement against austerity capable of making the politicians want to eat the debt (and take it out of our taxes) - the ideal of europe and democracy (that syriza was relying on) has already fallen.
horsemouth is also not convinced that the greeks will now have schools and hospitals and escape either
a) the worst of euro-austerity, or
b) get lightly treated under free-range austerity
- actually the question is, given the way things are going, will we ? -
but either
a) 'europe' buckles and does them a better deal (and the IMF and the owners of greek govt. debt get their money - erm. that would be the bankers) and austerity is rolled back in greece - I think this is very unlikely, but the great european trick so far has been putting off 'the moment of reckoning' (in the german sense of 'the bill please', similarly the very naturee of debt is to put things off) and pushing it all further down the road OR
b) grexit - greece escapes being the cornwall of europe (poor but pretty) only to be mercilessly farmed for debt issued at extortionate terms, devaluation, drachma or not - they could of course
c) go to russia...
horsemouth is not of course arguing that they should have voted YES.
there is some possibility of contagion to other european economies but I think the ECB will cover it - germany will get out its credit card put its arm round italy and go 'they're with us' UNLESS italy decide to have a tantrum about austerity/ lack of support over the migrants (in which case german politicians will problably take one look at german voters and go 'well fuck them then'). italy may be 'too big to fail' wheras greece isn't - greece can be sacrificed. but it can also be saved. the question is if the bankers don't have confidence in germany what will they have confidence in?
the best chance (for world economic meltdown) is china goes into economic meltdown while there's trouble in the eurozone and while something else scary and confidence sapping happens - a SARS outbreak etc.
it is not that the greeks have said we are not paying (fuck you bankers, fuck you eurocrats) - it is just that they no longer wished to be starved and watch their lives being destroyed, but it is in part this already and it can become this. but greece 'the workers state' in full grexit would not necessarily be a paradise for greek workers. and beyond that, and the arab spring and subsequent winter is my model here, this does not mean it is all destined to end happily.
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