as people come out to play horsemouth advises caution

the daily cases are currently at 71,259 that's up 27,242 versus last week. this is getting on for a 50% increase even though less testing is being done. 

'since the end of legal requirements to test and to self-isolate after a positive test result, many fewer tests are being taken – once free tests end at the start of april, testing is likely to fall further ..'

as people come out to play, wanting to believe it is over, the virus will get going again.  

omicron may be less lethal (and treatment may have improved) but it is more spready so it is still capable of killing people (and giving people long term illness - in a few years time the numbers of people with long term illness may well turn out to be a better measure of the effect of the virus than deaths).

the in hospital figures are up at 11,751 are +1,011  more people than last week (so about a 10% increase). this will be a couple of weeks behind the cases statistic but is now going up again. which means that daily deaths (which are currently going down at 142/ day, 52 less than last week) will start to tick up again. 

(in fact his is what has happened we are now at +4 deaths on the government statistics.)

all 3 indicators are now travelling in the same direction and that direction is increase. horsemouth has seen an article arguing that the over 55s are bearing the brunt of it (which is what you would expect - above a certain age you are less likely to be out and working but the older you are the more likely you are to get seriously sick and die. )

the only true measure of deaths is excess deaths (because this captures who has died as a result of indirect effects of the virus - hospitals being full etc. and who has been saved as a result of changes in behaviour (less travel to work means less car accidents etc.). on that measure more than 18 million people seem to have died from covid globally - you would think this would be enough to give people pause (but no). 

it may die back over the summer as people spend more time out doors or go on their holidays. but then increased holiday travel means increased chances of bringing back a new variant. and then it's winter again. (and away it all will go). 

as usual horsemouth advises caution (in as much as you can practice it given the things you need to do).

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horsemouth is indeed a fortunate bunny. he doesn't live in the ukraine (or syria, or lebanon, or any active warzone). he doesn't need to work (for the time being) or make daily use of public transport. he is engaged in stretching out this period of economic inactivity. he is participating, if a little vicariously, in the great resignation. 

the great resignation is (allegedly) a general turning away by the cadres of managers and workers from their positions in the organisation in favour of a lower level of economic activity (and more free time to live life as portrayed in the lifestyle supplements). 

horsemouth has had a lot of practice being poor he thinks he has an advantage. he also has no children he must clothe and house (and support through education). he is not, however, totally a selfish prick, he has worked hard on the communal endeavour  for a number of years, volunteered his labour in ecological and anti-nuclear groups, and years ago he was what is now disparagingly referred to as a social justice warrior (as if social justice was a bad thing). 

inflation will drive many people back to work (because it robs the poor of the value of their money). once again people are faced with the fact that capitalism cannot be relied upon to pay up. horsemouth worries about next winter. but on the other hand the sun is shining outside the window (ok that may have been excessively hopeful). 

today (perhaps) a visit to howard.