horsemouth in the foothills of the black mountains (and today's piece of toast is...)

this was written yesterday afternoon and evening,

well it's a rainy grade A grey day outside. the chickens seem unbothered and at least it is reasonably mild.  the fern over on the black hills has died back to a rust colour. (not that it was visible today due to low clouds). 

horsemouth has been out for a wander already (up to the fussell bench and round). there are blackbirds and sheep.

from the the nadine dorries and chris pincher by-elections horsemouth is anticipating some fun. 

if the electorate vote tory well then jesus christ what would a conservative MP have to do to bring sufficient  opprobrium on their party to end the habit of voting them, if the electorate vote in some other party (any other party) then that will show that people can change.

there has been a mass exodus of MPs from parliament in the last few years (it's just not fun any more they say) and horsemouth is expecting many who won't leave under their own steam to be slung out at the next election anyway. the question for many MPs is where do they sit on the toast-ometer, are they done? are they toast already? or are they in that vanishingly small sector 'a safe seat'. 

as of 9th october 2023, some 75 MPs have announced they that they will not stand again at the next general election. 48 tories, 14 labours, 8 SNPers, 3 'independents' (including matt handcock, another tory and a labour man). this figure is currently lower than in 2010, 2015 and 2019 but is likely to increase as the election approaches.

but it's not small already. and when you cumulatively add it up over a number of elections no wonder they all look so young these days. 

so who are likely to be added to this list? 

and today's piece of toast is...

rob roberts  seems a likely one to go. he's already served a 6 week suspension for sexual harassment and while he has rejoined the conservative party and started sitting in parliament again he sits as an independent. thus the local conservative party would have to reselect him as their candidate (or select a new candidate).  his majority (before this scandal) was not strong (at about 1000). in an ideal world he would be persuaded to stand as an independent and split the tory vote (that ought to do it).  nothing indicates that you are toast more strongly  than sitting as an independent. 

horsemouth was going to rabbit on about the second national infrastructure report (but it would help if he had read it first - so you may have to wait).

in a bit horsemouth will take the bin down  to the bottom of the drive (they live on a hill). there's a black bin for rubbish and a green bin for recycling - the morning is a black bin day.

horsemouth's brother is due to arrive tonight and then they can all chat and suchlike.

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it is the morning 'the happy voices cry'.  horsemouth's brother is here. breakfast in a bit. for now coffee.

bandcamp has been taken over by a new company. 

now it is by no means necessarily clear that bandcamp will go to shit but just in case you might want to download the music you already own by  musicians of bremen (or any of your favourite bands) and download anything you don't have yet but may want. 

failing that there are always the CDs.