symmetrical risk (hanging on and praying for growth)

'the powers that be are facing symmetrical risks, on the one hand they are scared of rudely awakening the population to the scale and stakes of the cuts, on the other hand, of frightening capital – i.e. themselves - with the scale and stakes of the crisis...'

- from we're into endgame by benedict seymour,  published 14th october 2010.

'often I can give the truest and most interesting account of any adventure I have had after years have elapsed, for then I am not confused, only the most significant facts surviving in my memory. indeed all that continues to interest me after such a lapse of time is sure to be pertinent and I may safely record all that I remember.' - thoreau, diary, 28th march 1857. 

of course when ben  wrote this what we were into (really) was the corporal clegg (cameron/ clegg) government. this is when the real author of our misfortunes, george osborne, got his start. thence we were off into the land of austerity and the lost decade (well the lost last 15 years really). a decade when borrowing costs were low and the economy could have been rebuilt.

but those days are now over. 

and here we are going down the long dark tunnel of austerity once again (as if no one learned anything from the last go around). 

for this time we are much further on in the process of decomposition. 

the assumption is that there is low hanging fruit to pick (there may not be).

now what we seem to be seeing is labour taking its economic cues from the OBR and announcing the cuts loudly and all in one go (to show loyal to the financial markets) - but maybe this is just the beginning of the cuts process, rather than stealth it in (as in the corporal clegg era), now the intention is to go hard from the start pleading the pressure (and unpredictability) of international events. 

it may be that the strategy is no more than hanging on and praying for growth. 

eventually (dialectically) come tax rises (we move round one dinner place in the triangle of state finances - tax, cut, borrow) - but tax rises on whom? they cannot be applied (like the increase on employers national insurance contributions) upon the working part of the population (because that would slow down growth even more). 

so where will we be by 2030?

older (for sure)

poorer (almost certainly)

paying more for gas, electricity, water and sewerage? (almost certainly)

paying more tax on whatever economic activity remains (almost certainly)

yesterday horsemouth was in yet another meeting - after he went for a walk on the common to clear his head. later he went bell-ringing (which is making progress). today a perfectly decent morning. horsemouth has sent in an email to check that various cosas or coisas are on track (hopefully they are).