how is horsemouth doing and what does he think is going on in the world?

well it's a beautiful morning out here in the wilds. in a bit horsemouth will go out and retrieve the bin from the bottom of the drive. the chickens have been fed. 

so how low are wages in the UK?

over the next 3 years 11 million people will be pulled into paying tax by the freezing of existing tax brackets, 5 million of them will be pensioners. 

so 6 million won't - they'll be low paid workers, because that's what's endemic in the UK - low pay. 

so more than 6 million people are currently earning less than £12,570 a year  while working. 

and of course this is just for the part of the economy they have figures for. 

so how is horsemouth doing?

well he has checked his finances once again. he was concerned he was spending too much money but on closer inspection he thinks he's safe out until the end of the year which means he's pretty close to his £10k a year lifestyle.

of course the proportion that is in a stocks and shares ISA takes a hit as the global carnage unfolds (but not a fatal one).  horsemouth had a table somewhere where he'd put in all the inputs (while he'd been working and saving)  and the outputs (from when he started to supplement his meagre income with it). 

one key change was when he started paying in to the works pension - they enrolled him into this at the last possible date and he never earned very much so it never amounted to very much (about £60/ month) -  but it meant his take-home pay went down below social reproduction levels (he was sunk beneath taxation) and so he had to start dipping his savings. 

the pension age is going up to 67. horsemouth thinks he has enough (variously sited) to make it (and then be safe in the embrace of the old aged pension - assuming it is still there).  

so how is horsemouth's adopted hometown of london doing?

well 250% is the increase in average house prices between 2010 and 2023 (compared to a 200% increase across the rest of london) in 53 of the fastest gentrifying neighbourhoods. along with a  2 percentage points drop in black populations there (equivalent to 10,000 people) and with a 4ppts drop in the population aged 15 or under in these areas (so 20,000 less children in those areas). 

london's ageing (does that remind you of the clash?)

london's getting posh... 

so what does horsemouth think is going on in the world? 

world trade will restructure to route around the US if there are tariffs - and even if they don't the bond markets will skin the US alive using the debt for daring to fuck with the programme of predictable profits (think of network). 

lots of short term pain for no economic gain (except for the super-rich who will broadly prosper in any economic situation). 

the effect of all this will be to bring US hegemonic power to an end earlier than it need have done. 

well it should help to remove the illusion that there's a way out by going back (brexit, sovereignty, immigration controls, right populism etc.) but actually horsemouth thinks people will just double down.