potholes on the road to net zero

'not to be printed until ten years after my decease, out of consideration for the persons named, even thought two-thirds of them are already dead anyway.' - stendhal, memoirs of an egotist. 

it's a difficult road to net zero by 2050 

probably (at a global scale) it is unachievable.

but that doesn't mean it is a bad thing to try to achieve it. 

reducing carbon emissions is (pretty much) a good thing in and of itself. 

achieving net zero requires either a collapse of industrial production and distribution or a major energy transition away from fossil fuels. it is argued that  energy transitions have been made before (the shift from wood to coal to petrol and gas for example) but this may not be so - as energy demands increased coal and oil and gas were simply added to the energy mix  in addition to  existing supplies, demand for earlier forms of energy did not fall off. 

that said the technology is there to move in the direction of net zero and there are strong incentives to do so. 

but the infrastructure is not (yet) there - the vast expansion of electricity production and distribution that will be required to replace coal and oil and gas with renewables. the infrastructure must be funded and built on a huge scale.

meanwhile (down at the microcosm) 

the communal endeavour was attempting  to insulate its houses. 

this they had opted to do availing themselves of government grants. it has been a tortuous process to move this forward (hopefully they are beginning to get there). 

horsemouth is starting to consider what will happen if a significant proportion of social and private rented housing has not been upgraded to the required energy performance EPC C standard by 2030.

what if the EPC C by 2030 target is missed?

well most likely the government will carry on requiring it and it will gradually be caught up with. 

alternatively the government may decide to abandon it as a target (and it will join a long list of housing targets that have not been met). 

if the government decide to enforce the EPC C by 2030 standard then this will result in a significant loss of revenue for private landlords and social housing providers after 2030. but, as can be seen by previous history, the government does not have a problem with sticking social housing providers with the bill. 

as a general guide social housing providers are not popular with their tenants, governments are not popular with their electorates. 

now 2030 is just after the 2029 election (assuming the current lot last out until then - which horsemouth thinks they will because for many MPs the alternative will be losing their seats). with the typical obtuseness of the british electorate horsemouth does not expect it to be a major issue (or anything else to do with housing really). 

the political headwinds against net zero more generally

well it is a vast infrastructural undertaking due to be made in a country with little success in vast infrastructure and not much spare cash (as a result of the band markets taking their cut). 

reform (if they are still up and running by the next election) have pretty much set their faces against it and will campaign against it arguing that british people are being unfairly hard done by when foreigners aren't pulling their weight etc. etc. the tories are playing catch up with reform, similarly. labour - well as with all other labour policies how deep does the commitment go?

everybody else is only likely to make it into power as part of a coalition - so if we get a greeny, lib-dem, labour coalition it will remain a key part of government policy. 

but if not, not. 

in any event the juggernaut of decarbonisation is moving, the economic case for renewables has been won, it will gradually happen regardless of the state's attitude to it, but, of course, gradually isn't good enough. 

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here it rained in the night (clearly). today and tomorrow some rain. sunday (curiously) mostly dry.  the stendhal goes well.