3 weeks of the war/ two-and-a-half years of trump remaining/ how bad can it get?

'by the great oak of cross foot and the green lane to cwmpelved green, where the idiot girl phoebe sat laughing by the fire while her grandfather was groaning in bed and a black cat rushed in and out through a broken window pane...' - kilvert, diaries, 20th march 1872.

on the 21st it snows in kilvert-land.

here the weather decent-ish until tuesday.

3 weeks of the war

'if 2020 taught us anything, it is how ready we must be to revise our worldview.' - adam tooze, $hutdown, conclusion. 

horsemouth is currently in how bad can it get? bargaining mode. 

and the answer is pretty bad. 

'I believe the world has not yet well understood the depth of the energy security challenge we are facing, it is much bigger than what we had in the 1970s... it is also bigger than the natural gas price shock we experienced after the russia's invasion of ukraine.' - IEA executive director fatih birol. 

the economic harms are staggering  and the longer the war runs the more they are baked in. of course the oil shortage/ natural gas shortage/ fertiliser shortage harms china but it also harms american citizens, british citizens, EU citizens. 

the increase in the cost of transport will cause inflation in almost all commodities, shortage of fertiliser will cause rises in food prices, electricity and gas prices will rise, interest rates will stay high throttling investment.

the poor will get poorer again (but even more so). 

however, ever the dialectician, horsemouth sees the good that can come out of this in breaking US hegemony.

two-and-a-half years of trump still remaining (conservative estimate) 

assuming he leaves office when he's supposed to (it's not like he doesn't have previous for election tampering and coup attempts).

last night (fairly early on) a dream where horsemouth was in a house with a girlfriend (a girlfriend from the past, a girlfriend from the future,  he couldn't tell). the house was very full of things but it all seemed bright and happy. here a cold misty morning but probably quite good later on. a walk into the village to get the newspaper. 

there's some evidence of growth in the greenhouse.