recorded on this day (sun and rain tomorrow)

'his brother has just been. horsemouth has sent him off  with a ton of books (probably not literally but it felt like it)'

a year ago horsemouth was completing the great clear out of his room in the wen preparatory to his final move to the wilds. many of the books are still in the garage but some have been migrated inside the house.  

he's showing you joy by john coltrane thinking it was recorded on this day by the classic quartet at the van gelder studio in 1964 (with additional material overdubbed by alice coltrane and others in 1972). 

'marguerite duras and jerome beaujour were discussing the authors she reads - musil, segalen, and the painter matisse.'

horsemouth can (now that he needs it) no longer find this quote in practicalities.

but he does have some segalen (paintings in a quartet encounters edition). he was just reading a little of the introduction (and this may tempt him to read more). 

outside a greyish morning. horsemouth was up early (6.30ish). the rabbits seem to be happy. bbc weather says grey all day (but sun and rain tomorrow).

tonight 70up on tv. last ever episode (allegedly).  

he forgot to mention his dream. he was in a bar. cunningfolk was the barman. he was showing horsemouth some olives as barsnacks. 

horsemouth dreamt about exhibiting art

yesterday evening (in 1981) 

marguerite duras and jerome beaujour were discussing the authors she reads - musil, segalen, and the painter matisse. 

the matisse sounds good. horsemouth has some musil and some segalen.

this morning horsemouth dreamt about exhibiting art. 

specifically howard's art at st. paul's cathedral. it seemed to be a great video display piece. later the curator of it all came over and talked to horsemouth (which was a bit difficult because it wasn't horsemouth's work of art) and then they went to see other pieces of art being exhibited. 

one of these was a giant whirlpool being exhibited in a swimming pool sized tank. the grey water sloshed around at tremendous speeds. 

while he was down in the wen one of horsemouth's favourite things he did was sing a backing vocal on denise's singing of molly malone (cockles and mussels a-live, alive oh!). she also sang she moved through the fair. 

horsemouth is back in the wilds. he has unleashed the chickens and fed them. the nasturtiums are doing well (very well). 

he woke up with a headache (but that seems to have cleared). 

while he was in hereford waiting for the bus  horsemouth had a falafel wrap.  

on his way back from his visit to the wen

 as we speak (as it were) horsemouth is on his way back from his visit to the wen.

there he saw denise and jonny and lethal and wayne and dave and claudia and graham and howard and enza and michelangelo. he also saw the inside of lidl and a great deal of transport infrastructure.

people of the world you are beautiful. 

he has to admit that (courtesy of his bank) the journey did not get off to the best of starts. fortunately his brother saved him and (fortified by a pint in wetherspoons) he made it onto the train. 

and now, somewhat tired and bruised by beer, he is on his way back. 

one interesting thing on the journey was that he could get a bus back from hereford on a sunday to pontrilas (which is two miles away). previously the nearest he has been able to get on a sunday was madley - 5 miles away). 

that just left the two mile walk from pontrilas which was truly beautiful in the sun. 

3 sailors dance

yesterday walk to the village (with the guests) and a walk back. a quick go on the exercise machines on the sportsfield. horsemouth has been sent a version of trois martelots (3 sailors dance) to listen to (and very good it is too). 

horsemouth's legs are now aching but at least it got him out of his post walk up the hill slump. 

before that a wander up the hill to deliver the eggs. in the path by the stream some cows and some calves. horsemouth backed them down the path and then managed to get round them at the gate.

today horsemouth is off travelling (where he will end up anyone knows) but he will be back home on sunday afternoon (that's the promise). 

 ---------------------

so how has horsemouth been feeling?

seeing his guests has cheered him up a bit and seeing the people where he is travelling should do the rest. 

it has been delayed by this, that, and the other, but still, finally, it is happening. 

above radie peat takes the other side of blackwaterside it seems. 

a visit to the village

nothing back on trois matelots yet. horsemouth had a quick look at gribouille's les corbeaux, it looks do-able. he thinks he needs to write another chapter  about a puppet show with sailors featuring bulotte the weasel. otherwise everything else progresses on keenly. 

guests have arrived. there has been a walk down to the abbey and a meal. after that horsemouth's mum and the guests stayed up playing cards. horsemouth is not interested in games of luck or skill so he retired to bed. 

today a visit to the village (doctor's appointment and village shop). he thinks the main thing is to avoid tiring his mum out with 'useful' tasks. tomorrow horsemouth is away so that he can be a visitor. 

oh dear. a name from horsemouth's past has made it into the newspapers (in connection with something or other). horsemouth's usual advice is if you are in a hole, stop digging. but sometimes even that isn't enough. 

by the time you read this guests will have arrived

by the time you read this guests will have arrived

further guests will be due later on in the day. 

yesterday horsemouth went for a wander up on the common (clockwise round the outside). at some point he took the bin down the drive and delivered the eggs to the crossroads. after that he dug up some potatoes and a rather large parsnip. 

it's the evening. horsemouth is in the office den. in the day this will be in use (so horsemouth will have to be elsewhere). 

the morning

horsemouth is elsewhere (in the conservatory). he has his coffee (and he's been out to visit the hens).

a new dispensation coming/ the new thing is being born

horsemouth was asked how he was.

he replied.

'there's now a bus service from hereford to a village a mile and a half away on a sunday... there will be  evening buses out of hereford from the end of september.

I've been singing (badly) in french, whistling and telling stories over at the far future village band on albums II, III and (soon to be) IV. 

how are you?'

this doesn't exactly answer the question though does it? 

horsemouth is grumpy and bored. the recipe that sustained him through the last two to three years is coming to an end. hopefully there is a new dispensation coming/ the new thing is being born. 

yesterday he had a go at singing les trois matelots (well at least the start of it). 

----------------------------

'I wonder in what terms other people tell their life histories. accounts based on chronology or external facts seemed to be the most popular, you start at the beginning of your life then trundle along towards on the present on the rails of public events...' - marguerite duras, practicalities. 

so horsemouth and his mother watched 70up the concluding (they tell us) episode of 7up the series where a number of children were followed from the age of 7 years and interviewed every 7 years.

horsemouth watched 21up (he guesses) while he was at sixth form college.  

he guesses this will be much discussed today. 

the group has more boys than girls (this would not happen now) and thus women's experiences are already marginalised. it has only one BAME kid in the whole bunch. unless someone is coming out aged 70 in episode 2 there are no LGBTQ+ characters. 

the first off is that it is a pretty strong argument for the post war boom. nearly all of the kids grow up to be materially 'successful' (houses, cars, families) not just the posh kids but the working class kids and the kids from the children's home too. 

it is a world of material success where someone who has worked as a deacon and then retired to france is almost presented as the failure. it is difficult not to make a wild diagnosis of depression but we are with the film makers definitions of surviving and thriving. had this character retired to spain and the sunshine would we think differently of him?

secondly (and inevitably) is is presented as a strong argument for marriage and children (not just as accumulator of capital but as life-work).  

we are told it is the last. can people not bear the pain of burying these characters? or watching them succumb to dementia? we have already buried the director. 

the physicist stakes his career on nuclear fusion (which in this alternate reality does not happen). he ends up divorced and surviving with cancer. apparently he has since died. horsemouth is saddened by this. one of the posh kids splits off in the direction of art and becomes a documentary film director himself, he seizes control of his narrative.

external facts intrude little into this account. but the post war boom is a major (unacknowledged) factor in this and it, indubitably, has come to an end. the steadiness and predictability of these lives must look unachievable to those who are 21 now. 

ok more on this in a week's time when episode 2 is broadcast. 

shopping bag spirits and freeway fetishes

a still from a barbara mccullough movie - possibly 1981’s shopping bag spirits and freeway fetishes: reflections on ritual space.

horsemouth heard about it because don cherry did the soundtrack to one of her films (1979's water ritual #1: an urban rite of purification) but he has been unable to find it anywhere. he possibly heard about it from the WIRE. 

recognition

so (in his previous blogpost) why was horsemouth getting exercised about recognition for his worldly deeds when he claims not to give a fuck?

and it should be doubly surprising because has he not finished with his worldly deeds (to whit the communal endeavour)? 

well it's because (at some point) he will be visiting the wen and worries about having these kinds of conversations. the advantage of this is that he re-read (in a hurry) ‘the tyranny of structureless’ essay. 

some text to illustrate boredom

it is the fabled yesterday and soon it will be time for the 12:00 news. the state of the world will continue to be lamentable no doubt. (and so it proved). 

horsemouth should turn of the laptop and read a bit more. or go for another walk. eventually though he started watching youtube videos earlier than he usually does. 

the morning

it's a rainyish morning (but the sky is fairly clear). there's even some sunshine. horsemouth has been out already to unleash the chickens and put the milk in the garage. tomorrow preparation for the arrival of visitors. today nothing so much. 

in first person

yesterday morning: a walk into the village to pick up some loaves of bread (as predicted)  

horsemouth makes it about a mile there and a mile straight back over the common. he couldn't do a run to the butcher's whilst he was at it because, being a sunday, it was shut. horsemouth may have suggested that on monday this will be possible (despite the forecast rain he cited as his reason for going) but ideally he would push it further along to another day. 

you may remember horsemouth enthusing about the new evening buses back from hereford 

at 8.30pm and 10.30pm that started at the beginning of september. yay! brilliant!

well that may be so but the road will be closed september 16th through to september 30th, 8.00pm to 6.00am. so horsemouth would guess that puts paid to the buses (for the time being). 

horsemouth was tempted out into an opinion in first person (slightly edited)

'my efforts have not always been crowned with success (it would be fair to say) but a number of times I have found good solid collaborators and these people have enabled me to do good work. 

I have since tried to be that collaborator for others. 

on the whole though I recognise the ‘getting no reward or being punished for it’ syndrome. a number of times now almost everything I did seemingly had to be either blocked or (if that failed) hushed up. 

at first I thought it was my working with anarchists (‘the tyranny of structureless’). 

my current thought is that the world is divided between the ‘introverts’ (for whom everything is too loud and scary and therefore must be stopped from happening) and the ‘extroverts’ (whose attitude is ‘turn down for what?’). in an entirely introvert world nothing would happen (other than decay). an entirely extrovert world would simply explode. 

to my collaborators I am truly grateful, they have enabled me to do my best work, the work of which I am truly capable, they have enabled me to see the mountaintop. but for my enemies I cannot grow loving kindness (they can fuck off and die).' 

horsemouth is concerned by a friend's funeral plans. hopefully it will all work correctly and he will be honoured and assisted on to the afterlife. 

after a brief period of sun it started raining

horsemouth wombled the eggs up the hill. the people he was visiting are back from holiday. 

then he vacuum cleaned round the kitchen and emptied the dead flies out of the strip light. his mum was also keen for him to walk into the village to get some more loaves of bread despite there still being an entire one in the freezer - he has attempted to postpone this task until monday (but he suspects he will get pestered into it on the sunday morning). 

he's been feeling a bit run down and stiff of late so the exercise will do him good. 

in a bit he will go out and see if he can entice the chickens up the banking to forage freely as opposed to hanging around the gate looking like they are being deprived of sustenance. 

it has occurred to horsemouth that he is not like the chickens up on the banking, he is like the chickens laying down in the dust by the gate waiting to be fed.

he picked some vegetables (runner beans and tomatoes) to assuage his anxiety and then... well he cracked open a beer ladies and gentlemen (because why not).  after a brief period of sun it started raining. 

'to replace creation' such is the role of alcohol figures marguerite duras. she drinks. she drinks heavily and consistently. eventually she has to stop. she stops several times. there's a battle with the d.t.'s. 

'I've spent whole summers at neauphle alone except for drink...' 

it is the chapters on writing that are amazing (blanchot gets two mentions and counting).  but they are amazing because they are embedded in the life, in the practicalities. 

the flood arrives

'every limit is a beginning as well as an ending' - george eliot, middlemarch. 

in bruno's dream by iris murdoch the flood arrives. the stamp collection is destroyed (the basis of patrimony and inheritance). the relationships of the main protagonists are rearranged. it is still not possible to tell where it is all going but it has a lot of the right ingredients for horsemouth. 

horsemouth went for a walk on the common. up to the top of the hill down to the well back by the seats in the middle. he bumped into the sheep (twice) and the ponies (once) but saw no dogwalkers etc. at the well a contractor was working on the drainage from the well and a path alongside it. earlier he could hear some builders were working on the new buildings on the right hand side going up the hill but he didn't see them. 

he seemed to have timed it well. 

in the morning he posted off some tracks he had recorded earlier to rob as proposals for far future village band tracks. they didn't seem to do it but one he sent subsequently did. 

in the afternoon - tea and he read (finishing off bruno's dream). 

the flood that's the thing. it is of course the mill on the floss that ends in flood (but even then there's a chapter after to tidy up lose ends). 

it's an el niño year so horsemouth expects a wet winter (one with lots of rain) and thus lots of floods. this could be a problem for the neighbouring village which flooded twice last winter. for the moment the landscape is still recovering from drought, it is still soaking up the rainfall, it hasn't started running off it yet. 

a passable morning out there. no sign of the flood yet. 

'if you're here with me in the end times...'

'if you're here with me in the end times... end of video times... catch you soon.'

- thrift-a-life/ bookpilled on his clothing side-hustle (now with new technology)

ok horsemouth spent another morning fucking around with the drains (hopefully he hasn't done more harm than good). at the end he dumped some drain cleaner down the main offender and then washed it down with some more water. he's since taken off all his clothing he was wearing in the debacle, had a shower and chucked the clothes in the washing machine.

there is a limited amount he can do. rather than try and fix it his probable goal should be to nurse the system along. 

failing that. hire some professionals. 

he had a headache all day (he'd been hoping that would clear). finally in the evening it seemed to have shifted. 

it is the morning. time to get back on the far future village band thing. rob aims at one track a day. 

'if you're here with me in the end times...' says the one. 

darn it! look at how stressed horsemouth is! he just forgot the coffee and has overboiled it. but, by way of compensation, now he has his coffee. 

enough entertainment (the dance of the golden rays)

'interesting situation. no internet. back off downstairs to try it again in a bit

horsemouth has his coffee. and as much digital entertainment saved on his various laptops as he has.'

horsemouth has typed this before. and once again it is true. 

it makes him anxious but in theory he has enough entertainment stored already (in books and CDs) to last him a lifetime and, if worst comes to worst, there's the tv and the radio (and hey! he could go an buy a newspaper). 

the day began (yesterday) - eggs to the crossroads and bins down the drive (recycling according to horsemouth's calculation). 

so far so good. horsemouth also did some mucking out of the hen shed also. 

ok so he's just sorted one possible source of anxieties. (he dares say he'll find some others soon). 

ok it's the morning. horsemouth wakes up with a headache. he downs two paracetamol.  remind him to go and pick up the bin from the bottom of the drive. later his mum goes into town. 

more work on the far future village band IV is going on far off in riogordo. three sailors  has turned into some kind of a march. there's a track called the dance of the golden rays. 

elevation and spiritual blessing

ok horsemouth has been picking some runner beans, some tomatoes, some damsons and some plums. this has cheered him up a bit. he was feeling slightly headachey and anxious. with the damsons and the plums horsemouth is not exactly sure which is which - more of one and (in the end) less of the other (sod's law) - anyway less than last year or previous recent years.  

perhaps he could put more effort into picking some apples. 

he should really get some broad beans in so they can overwinter and become earlies. he's put in some peas in the hope that he'll get some before winter arrives. he might hedge his bets and have some in the greenhouse too. 

today the anniversary of the recording of two more tracks from the ash grove gig in 1972 - elevation and spiritual blessings. 

horsemouth wakes up anxious as to where he will sleep when he comes up to visit the wen. he has time to sort it out (but in classic horsemouth worry about it when you can't fix it he's worrying about it first thing in the morning). 

well it's a beautiful morning (blue skies and sunlight) and the coffee tastes good. let him reorientate a little about what is good. ok it's clouding over now but the weather forecast doesn't look too bad. 

he has tried re-recording a version of tri martalod but he's still not feeling it. maybe he should steal some lyrics from renaud's trois matelots. 

anyway he's very pleased with night walk as the whistling tune is now called. 

a night walk beset by ghosts and random fears

yesterday

already a busy day. sudden unauthorised morning phonecall to book a medical appointment. much wailing and gnashing of teeth. eventually it seems to have all come together painlessly (excepting the wailing and teeth gnashing) but we won't know for sure until the appointment is done. 

phew. this means of doing business is exhausting (and there is another thing horsemouth could do with getting out of the way). 

in the afternoon  

the first arrival of a track for the far future village band IV - and great it sounds too! (ok let him listen to it again... ah!!!). 

here's horsemouth whistling bravely as he goes for a night walk beset by ghosts and random fears. as soon as horsemouth can he will play it to you. 

a second arrival - horsemouth is less keen, he will try redoing his bits. they've got time. 

earlier a walk on the common (in daylight). bump into a neighbour walking her two dogs. 

later a battle with something google. (horsemouth does hope he can post this tomorrow). seems like it won't let him post up photos without signing in (again). bizarre. (ok he's got it sorted - he thinks). 

the morning dawns rainy and grey. horsemouth feeds the chickens and takes the milk over to the garage. 

greetings to saud

yesterday horsemouth was unblocking the drains (well one of the kitchen sinks and the drain that comes from that). this is normally a fairly stinky job and puts him in a foul temper.

what he can't do (whilst he is doing this) is hold a civil conversation. he just wants to be allowed to get on with it and get the job done as quickly as possible.

this is his major character flaw an unwillingness to ask for help, an unwillingness to engage with work as a social process. it is a measure of his insecurity.

--------------------------

horsemouth does not own a smart phone (he has owned a series of stupid phones instead). he used to argue he only had one for work, now he would probably say he only has it for reassurance.

nonetheless he is typing this on a laptop and onto a social media platform.

he has entertained himself (and you hopefully) on one social media platform, later he will entertain himself (and you hopefully) on another one. he may even copy the text across and entertain you with the same text.

in the evening he will entertain himself with another social media platform. 

work was very good at distracting horsemouth from social media. whole chunks of the day he was offline (broadly while he was out of the house and out of a library). now that he has retired it has properly got its teeth into him. 

-----------------------------

on this day in 1973 the pharoah sanders' band recorded ore-se-rere (by ebenezer obey) and a track called the gathering at a concert at noted LA venue ash grove.  these were used on the elevation album. 

two more tracks were recorded at the venue on the 9th and a track greetings to saud  recorded in the studio on the 13th. 

this was an entirely written the day before blogpost (except for this bit here). outside a grey day. 

an entirely written in the morning blogpost ('in this sort-of-a-book...')

an entirely written in the morning blogpost

(except for any quotations)

'september the sixth however, I left for the shrine' 

- matsuo basho, the narrow road to the deep north. 

horsemouth is a little surprised but he just didn't get round to writing or preparing any text yesterday.

yesterday at 4pm (or so) zoom beers with howard (who was quite chipper considering the various disasters attending the commencement of the school year). 

'in this sort-of-a-book which isn't really a book at all...'

marguerite duras. practicalities. horsemouth had turned over the top corner of the page to remind himself to quote it in the morning. 

'the only alternative is to say nothing. but that can't be written down'. 

it is for you to decide whether horsemouth has succeeded in escaping both the tyranny of the subject matter and the need of a text to make an argument. 

today a sunny warm day.

before breakfast horsemouth unblocked the sink. (he will give it another crack with some enzymic cleaner later on in the day). the drain out the back needs doing as well (it seems designed to get clogged). 

masked men in black blocking traffic in dover

this is not good. it's a public relations stunt (in the edward bernays fashion) in that it crystallises public opinion. it is an appearance of something people may want but it cannot be the actual thing because that would take way more resources. think of boris driving a union jack covered tractor through a polystyrene wall with brexit written on it. 

it symbolised the thing people might want. it creates an illusion, a proposal. 

reform's conference will be over before they have to respond to it (and anyway they have their own problems). there's us (the decent sensible law abiding racists), or there's the nutters, or there's this lot. it creates the illusion of an organised disciplined force of significant size which can be taken as legitimising the positions of reform as a party. 

not good. 

sketchbooks (at a given moment)

'I think all my problems with painting, my failures, arise from my not knowing or being in touch with myself at a given moment.'  - richard diebenkorn, quoted in sketchbooks, the paris review 215. 

well horsemouth made it to friday once again.

he solved the week (now there just remains the weekend to solve). 

the weekend is marked as leisure time and so is less freighted with concepts of labour and production. 

horsemouth (as you know) will almost certainly have written this blogpost on a friday and then will write again on the morning of the saturday. it is difficult to be in touch with his temporally distant self. 

there is a doubling there (at least). 

he goes back and he adjusts the tenses of the verbs trying to find a formulation that will ring true when it is read back at some future date. 

ok so he's just (it is friday) walked into the village to pick up his mum's prescription  and wandered back (two miles all told). 

he saw a black labrador bounding towards him but then when he looked again it had vanished. 

in the evening he read more of practicalities (and, sad to say, farted about on youtube loads). in practicalities a discussion of the text's own composition.

'... the spoken texts were transcribed, we read them over and appraised them, I made corrections and jerome beaujour read the result. it was difficult at first. we soon abandoned questions and answers. we tried a subject-by-subject approach but gave that up too. the last phase of the work consisted of shortening and lightening the texts and toning them down. it was all done by common consent.' 

it is the morning (once again). 

his mother is complaining of feeling cold. there is an autumnal nip in the air particularly in the mornings. no egg delivery this weekend (so no walk up the hill).

deep adaptation (three sailors dance)

so horsemouth did go down and get the bin from the bottom of the drive. he didn't make it into hereford to do more book-shopping (probably there were no more books to be shopped he tells himself). 

it is a bandcamp friday so horsemouth is encouraging more of you to purchase copies of the various far future village band albums. (but if you don't it's ok). 

he's had a go at recording le chaland qui passe for the far future village band IV  album. he's tried it in the whistling and the whistling plus guitar versions. he's also taken a crack at tri martalod (three sailors) in a similar fashion. 

horsemouth is contemplating deep adaptation. and deep adaptation means accepting that things are going to collapse  and move on to a different state. the old world is over (and yet people still insist on talking reasonably). 

this morning a rainy grey morning. horsemouth doesn't know what he will get up to today. 

an entirely written in the morning blogpost

 an entirely written in the morning blogpost

remind horsemouth to go and get the bin from the bottom of the drive. greyish morning. later an opportunity to go into hereford and do some more book-shopping. (will he take it?)

some messages from iona who has been listening to the far future village band III album (well the first half anyway).  soon himself and rob will recommence their campaign. horsemouth has already written and performed more of the fictions so it's just a matter of getting on with the songs. he plans to do more whistling and wordless vocalising.

the problem with le chaland qui passe for the far future village band is that it's a bit complicated and urban (similar to je te veux really). anyway they'll see. difficult to tell until it's done. 

horsemouth wonders how the other pamphlets he sent out are getting on. 

coming up soon (tomorrow!) a bandcamp friday - horsemouth will be hawking the far future village band project. 

the chickens are out on the hill foraging for food (that is good to see). 

from 12 years ago horsemouth was saying the following;

horsemouth sighs. always (already) it is difficult. (and no-one has gone anywhere yet)

he now has no idea what he was complaining about but the sentiment strikes him as familiar. his life now is much easier (and perhaps a little dull). 

'from the beginning of autumn to the end of winter'

'this book helped us pass the time. from the beginning of autumn to the end of winter.' 

- marguerite duras (and jerome beaujour) in  la vie matérielle, translated into english (somewhat strangely) as practicalities.

if you have the -uaries and the embers you have 6 months, or half the year. 

similarly with the equinox to equinox (autumn and winter). 

by way of compensation the weather in september is normally pretty good. outside it has clouded over but earlier it was bright and sunny. here overcast until the saturday (allegedly). (and as usual the weather is much better in hackney). and (to be fair) the sun has come out again here. 

and (also to be fair) now it is drizzling. 

later on much internet kerfuffle but it seems to have settled down and now horsemouth is perusing his old blogposts. 

indeed in the morning the internet seemed to be out and horsemouth was contemplating a day without it making do with just what he had saved on his laptop, the world of books and the world of nature. 

our coltrane album of the day (first meditations) was recorded 2nd september 1965 but not released until 1977. coltrane decided to substantially re-record it with a new band and so this version lay in the vaults. 

the embers (badenoch rearranges the deck chairs on the torytanic)

the embers

september

october

november

december

so you see how it goes. fully a third of the year. (and we start here)

on september 23rd at about 1am in the morning we have the autumn equinox and we enter the dark half of the year which runs through until march 20th. 

but we have a few weeks before it is that. before that horsemouth is due up to town for a flying visit. 

calendar day

we go around and turn the page on the calendars. the calendar to rule them all is the triple negative calendar which commands release the bat-moths!

badenoch rearranges the deck chairs on the torytanic

cleverley is gone from housing to attempt to become mayor of london. priti patel is gone as shadow foreign secretary.  

horsemouth firmly expects the tories to do better than expected at the next general election at the expense of reform but that will still leave them with only the hope of a reform/ tory coalition as a chance to get into power as compared to a labour/ liberal coalition that horsemouth expects to get more seats. 

(of course it could got he other way)

horsemouth thinks there is a limit to farage's popularity and he doesn't think there's anything else to reform (yet). he thinks that the tories will be progressively forgiven by their electorate for their last time in office and rehabilitated. he thinks that labour will dig themselves out of the pit they are in enough to escape humiliation at the next election. he thinks the lib dems will basically stay where they are. he thinks the greens/ independents/ your party will get some seats but not enough for it to be a true breakthrough. 

horsemouth is up. he has his coffee. it's another beautiful morning. he's already been across to the chickens and taken the milk over to the garage.