kent brockman channel 5 news (last known sighting)
the moment of danger when material long supressed in political debate reaches the surface
in london two prominent council bods have defected from labour to reform. robin wales and clive furness.
reading the clive furness piece is instructive.
horsemouth doesn't see that as a program capable of winning office in newham (getting a lot of votes from the disgruntled yes, winning office no).
like gorton and denton newham has a sufficient ethnic population unlikely to warm to reform's message to make electoral success there unlikely. it's not that people from ethnic minorities don't vote for reform (or become reform politicians) it is just that they are less likely to do so.
but then the election is a four-way split making it harder to predict (greens - independents - reform - labour residual).
both greens and reform have a lack of in office experience but 'hiring in' expertise from the previous regime does not look insurgent - it makes reform look complicit with the sins and inefficiencies of the past (before they get to commit their own).
what the collapse of the two party system does is make any elections more representative (in that propositions formerly outside the mainstream - from the left, from the right, are now votable on) but also less representative (because it's now even more of a three plus way split rather than a straight choice between two opposing propositions).
of course just because something is voted for this doesn't mean it will actually happen - electoral arithmetic, bureaucratic inertia, vested interests, the 'deep state' etc. all can conspire to prevent people's deepest wishes being fulfilled (and even then just because something voted for happens it doesn't mean it is good for the people who voted for it).
out here in the wilds horsemouth's strategy will be the caerphilly strategy - voting to keep reform out. he thinks that there is a limit on reform's support set by nigel farage's personal popularity above which it cannot easily go.
horsemouth was surprised when the greens took north herefordshire. he was surprised (when looking at the results from the last general election in herefordshire south) how well labour had done (they had come close to taking south herefordshire) but they won't be doing that this time horsemouth supposes.
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it's a grey morning. from here on in a written in the morning blogpost.
he was reading his blogposts from back in 2020 (the pandemic year). the heartwarming season ending montages, the sudden appreciation of neglected books. he was on a roll (rather than just rolling the rock). he has started on the dedalus book of dutch fantasy.
right now it seems doubtful the sun can break through the mist. (but it will).
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