Friday, 29 August 2025

rain tomorrow and sunday (probably a little rain today)

ok in general horsemouth is in favour of soaking private landlords for every penny...

but taxing landlord's rental income will probably just encourage (private) landlords to put up the rent or sell up and leave the rental sector entirely (er. thus driving up rents).

like similar government raids on small private landlord rental incomes what it will do is encourage corporate investors to move into housing (and this will drive up rents still further). 

and what all this will do is drive up inflation over the next few years - perhaps not CPI but certainly RPI (now called CPI+ horsemouth believes), the one that includes housing costs. 

social housing landlords will almost certainly increase rents by CPI+1% (the maximum they are allowed too) to try to catch back up with where they were before the conservative government's raid on their finances (about 5% all told). 

they will also build less social housing and build more properties for sale/ part rent part buy etc..  

add to this the gradual creep up of energy costs and the continuing spikes in food costs and... 

well let's just say it's a perfect storm of feel bad factors.

broadly the average real net national disposable income per capita has stayed fairly constant since the 2008 financial crash (here's a graph showing it's year on year growth, on average it has only been edging up slowly at 1-2% when compared to the considerable improvements since the 1950ies).  

but this is incredibly broadly, since 2020 it's been a bumpy ride.  (there are 14% drops when covid hits and 11% when the ukraine gas crisis hit).

and with this it must be remembered that food prices  rose by 30.6% over the 3 years to 2024 (as much as they did in the previous 13 years).

it is to be remembered that this is an average and that many people are not doing that well (and that some people are doing considerably better). 

anyway here's horsemouth. the morning is clearing up. rain tomorrow and sunday. (probably a little rain today). 



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